Global petrol demand growth could halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, analysts said, driven by a shift to electric cars in China and the US and a return to normal consumption after last year’s bounce following Covid-19.
In the lowest growth since 2020, demand is likely to rise 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), to stand at 26.5 million bpd this year, says consultancy Wood Mackenzie, down from growth of 700,000 bpd last year, as China nears the point of peak transport fuel demand and the US has surpassed it.
“Penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) has been increasing in US and China,” said Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta.
“For this year Chinese demand will grow by only 10,000 bpd, due to higher EV uptake.”
Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from growth of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fuelled by the consumption boom after the pandemic, said analyst Mukesh Sahdev.
China, once the world’s driver of gasoline demand, is expected to account for more than half of all EV sales this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.
China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) predicts a 1.3% increase in gasoline consumption, reaching 165.1 million metric tons (3.8 million bpd) this year. This growth amounts to about two million tons.
Sinopec’s research arm forecasts a 1.7% increase in gasoline demand, totaling about three million tons, reaching 182 million tons this year.
As falling prices spur demand, the share of electric cars sold this year could reach 45% in China, about 25% in Europe and more than 11% in the US, the IEA estimates.
Similarly, in the United States, where EV adoption has been steadily rising, the automotive industry is witnessing a paradigm shift toward electric mobility.
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