Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected

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Key Fed inflation

The core personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, unchanged from February and slightly higher than expected.

Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, more than the personal income increase of 0.5%.

The personal saving rate fell to 3.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from February and 2 full percentage points from a year ago.

Inflation showed few signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.

Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared with the 2.6% estimate.

On a monthly basis, both measures increased 0.3%, as expected and equaling the increase from February.

Markets showed little reaction to the data, with Wall Street poised to open higher. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year note at 4.67%, down about 0.4 percentage points on the session.

Futures traders grew slightly more optimistic about two potential rate cuts this year, raising the probability to 44%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Transitioning to the economic impact of the Key Fed inflation measure, the higher-than-expected rise in March may have wide-ranging consequences across various sectors. Consumers may feel the pinch as prices for goods and services increase, impacting their purchasing power and overall spending habits.
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